Why can’t we predict earthquakes if we know about Plate Tectonics?

Because it’s probably bullshit. Earthquakes are supposedly caused by tectonic plates sliding under earth’s crust crashing into and scratching each other. Yet the way these plates move is so chaotic scientists cannot predict when an earthquake will happen. Alternatively the whole plate tectonics theory is just a theory, and not fact. According to my understanding they haven’t dug themselves that deep to take a look whether the plates actually exists, or have verified their existence with sensors of some sort.

It seems toads know a lot more about plate tectonics than scientists: “Today’s scientists understand earthquakes a lot better than we did even 50 years ago, but they still can’t match the quake-predicting prowess of the common toad (Bufo bufo), which can detect seismic activity days in advance of a quake. A 2010 study published in Journal of Zoology found that 96 percent of male toads in a population abandoned their breeding site five days before the earthquake that struck L’Aquila, Italy, in 2009, about 46 miles (74 kilometers) away. Researchers aren’t quite sure how the toads do this, but it’s believed that they can detect subtle signs, such as the release of gases and charged particles, that may occur before a quake”.

So… are they using toads to predict earthquake? Seems like scientists are looking into it. Which is good enough, I guess.

As it is now, however the experts don’t seem to have any good grasp of when an earthquake will happen, but at least they have some notion of which areas are more prone to earthquakes than others. And that’s not saying much, since all it requires from you is to know the history of earthquakes in an area. China, Japan and San Francisco are notorious for big earthquakes, but I don’t think a destructive earthquake has ever been recorded in Finland. In light of this inability to understand the causes and occurrences of earthquakes what good is the plate tectonics theory?

Either the plate tectonics theory is simply wrong, maybe the plates don’t even exist, or they exist but their nature and behaviour is quite different to what the experts think, or the plates behave much as the experts say, but there is another factor they know nothing about which causes earthquakes in conjunction with the moving plates. Common toads seem to know about this mysterious factor, though.

I don’t know much about geology or any of that hard science stuff, so I’m certainly not going to offer an alternative explanation to plate tectonics. But the sad thing is, the so-called experts seem to know less about it than toads, as well. Plate tectonics may be best theory we have for earthquakes, and that is not a happy thought, since it seems quite useless. All of our intelligence and ability to theorize seems quite meaningless when compared with the raw instinct of animals. Remember this if and when you are experiencing a natural disaster. Should you see a scientist in his white coat running one way and a pack of animals running the other way, which one should you follow?




Toads: http://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/natural-disasters/earthquake7.htm

How earthquakes work: http://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/natural-disasters/earthquake.htm

Toads ‘could be used to predict earthquakes’: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/8928251/Toads-could-be-used-to-predict-earthquakes.html


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